Democrats ask voters to protect democracy, abandoning America’s most sacred democratic principles: that the voters choose their politicians and that elections have meaning.

by Alex Keena

Last year, Donald Trump began a “redistricting battle” by pressuring Republicans in Texas into redrawing their state’s district map for the purpose of helping them win five more seats. Democrats in California responded by advancing a map of the congressional district that favors Democrats. Other states (both blue and red) followed suit.

This latest battle in the redistricting conflict is taking place in Virginia. Democrats have proposed a measure to temporarily undo anti-gerrymandering measures approved by voters last year and replace the unbiased maps with extreme Democratic gerrymanders. The measure is still being challenged in court but the new maps are expected give Democrats a 10-to-1 advantage.

Expert on redistricting and co-author of two academic books on the subject, I think this is a huge mistake that could have unexpected consequences for Democrats.

In popular discourse, the issue has been framed in terms of fairness.

This is happening in Richmond right now.

The Republicans have also been largely responsible for the violation of the Democratic norms which prevented aggressive gerrymandering. The “rules”, since the Republicans gerrymandered aggressively after 2010, and the conservative Supreme Court declined to intervene, have changed.

This is a small point, but it misses the bigger picture: extreme gerrymandering puts Democrats at grave risk in Virginia.

To give Democrats an advantage of 10-1, mapmakers need to pack Republicans in one “safe” district and “crack” Republican Support across the remaining districts. This will create Democratic Majorities.

This is because Democratic voters are more likely to reside in urban areas, such as along the I-95 corridor, in Northern and Central Virginia and the Hampton Roads area. To achieve this, districts must be drawn in an irregular shape that combines urban Democratic voters and “mixed”, suburban and rural red-leaning areas. It is difficult to predict how these communities will vote and in what numbers in future elections.

In the event of a “Blue Wave”, (e.g. In 2026, Democrats will likely benefit from this type of gerrymander. Once the pendulum swings back to the Republicans, Democrats should expect that these “Democratic districts” will fall. The gerrymandering that was meant to be pro-Democratic could end up helping Republicans gain a lopsided majoritiy and take control of the U.S. House in the future (for instance, 2028 or 2030).

Even worse, replacing the existing map with one that is gerrymandered would undermine the progress made by Democratic challengers in districts held by Republican incumbents.

As an example, Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s performance in District 1, in the gubernatorial election last year, suggests that Republican incumbent Rob Wittman may be extremely vulnerable. Salaam Bhatti, Shannon Taylor and other viable Democratic candidates have already started their primary campaigns. Consider Eugene Vindman who won the District 7 in 2024 with a Republican lean. The new maps would undo this work and undermine the community building effort. They could also expose Democrats more in future elections.

The Republican gerrymandering offers Democrats a unique opportunity to gain ground this fall, without having to resort to the anti-democratic tactics Republicans have used to remain in power.

There’s a good reason why Texas Republicans weren’t eager to adopt Trump’s map. The 2021 gerrymander struck a delicate balance in protecting GOP incumbents while maximizing partisan advantage. The 2025 gerrymander assumes the GOP will gain five more seats. However, this assumption is based on the data from the election of 2024, where Trump performed better with Latinos. The new map may spell disaster for Republicans under a “Blue Wave”.

Democrats ask voters to abandon America’s most sacred democratic principles, namely that the voters choose their own politicians and that elections matter. It is not only unfair but also short-sighted and strategically stupid. It could help Republicans remain in power in Virginia and encourage Trump to “nationalize voting” and promote authoritarianism.

Dr. Alex Keena, Associate Professor of Political Sciences at Virginia Commonwealth University, focuses his research on legislative politics and elections as well as the influence of money in U.S. Democracy. This article was republished by The Virginia Mercury, under the Creative Commons License.