By James C. Sherlock

A Virginia Republican Convention was attended by the author about a decade ago. He thought it odd. The same thing happened to him with too many of the members from both parties. Since then, he’s avoided giving advice to the Virginia Republican Party’s leadership.

Here’s what I have to say.

Republicans must face demographic changes and adjust their policies accordingly to remain relevant. The population projections of the Weldon Cooper Center would be instructive. The Weldon Cooper authors suggest that the numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt. Particularly further out in the future. They can be taken to be correct in their direction.

All of them would agree that the macro-level affordability in Virginia is a key factor for their local demographic forecasts. Affordability is defined by a combination between well-paying employment, housing availability and costs, and other goods and services.

Weldon Cooper predicts that the growth will continue to expand current trends. The forecast is that growth will be concentrated in metro areas, and the population of Southwest will continue to decline. The population will grow due to the influx of immigrants.

The Republican Party needs to adjust.

Northern Virginia

The author grew up in Falls Church before the beltway, and worked in Tysons from 1995 to 2005.

He has visited often enough to understand the current population density and traffic problems, as well as the local government regulations that govern residential construction. These regulations increase the price of existing housing and new construction by limiting supply.

The job market. Northern Virginia has a high concentration of civilian federal employees and federal contractors.

The decimation by President Trump of federal jobs in Northern Virginia and those funded by the federal government was an attempt to reform a sclerotic federal government that is more adept at spending than making sure it’s well spent. Many agencies don’t do much of their own work. They welcome lobbying from former colleagues who want to distribute money to contractors in the Beltway, and all over the country. The federal employees who make up the Democratic base fund the non-profit part. What could possibly go wrong? Ask Minnesotans.

He is hated by the bureaucracy and their social policy contractors. They also despise the non-profits on the left. They hated him regardless.

They haven’t yet seen anything. We are waiting for the Supreme Court to overturn Humphreys Executor and Trump V. Slaughter before we can create the unitary executive that the Constitution demands.

When Democrats are next in charge in Washington, they will move quickly to expand the federal bureaucracy. No one will ever forget the fragility of government desk jobs, particularly those that are vulnerable to administration changes and AI. The federal desk job will never again be the career sinecure that it was a decade or more ago.

Transportation Safety Northern Virginia Metro is a disgrace. Fare Evasion is at 70%. Women, in particular, are afraid to ride the bus.

Affordability. According to the Weldon Cooper projections, Fairfax County and Arlington County are among the 20 localities of the state where the population is declining in all age groups except for the 65+ cohort. It’s because it is too expensive to live in the area.

Loudoun growth continues, but a boom in low-cost, government-subsidized housing has not been a feature of that, the wealthiest county in America. The 57-page Standard Operating Procedure of Loudoun’s Affordable Unit Purchase Program reveals the challenges faced.

Northern Virginia will be unable to achieve affordability without increased competition in the economy and due to the fragile nature of thousands six-figure government and contractor jobs.

Immigrant Populations

Encyclopedia Virginia

Over 10% of Virginia’s population is Latino. The largest groups are Salvadoran, Mexican and Puerto Rican. Northern Virginia, Tidewater and Richmond are the main Latino-populated areas. The Latino population has a median age just above 29 and is expected to reach 1.6 million (17% of Virginia’s population by 2030).

The growth and success in the Asian-heritage communities is another trend that can be easily observed. In 2020, Asian Americans will make up 7% of Virginia’s population.

Between 2010 and 2020, the Asian American population of Northern Virginia (121743) increased faster than Hispanic Americans’ (115577).

Hispanic, and Asian American residents have a very positive view of America. They are a great asset to Virginia and to the country. They are essential to the success of any political party.

Like everyone else, the children of immigrants also want affordable housing, safety, quality schools and easy transportation.

What should I do?

Republicans will never regain their majority if they continue to concentrate on the “bad” Democrats and not on their own policies. They must focus on popular conservative themes, which the party, particularly in Virginia, often fails to articulate.

• Hispanics and Asian Americans voted for Donald Trump because he promised to stop illegal immigration. They are strongly in favor of legal immigration, especially when it’s merit-based. They welcome legal immigrants who can make a positive contribution to society.
• The same group is more likely than others to launch a small business rather than pursue a government job. Focus on policies that encourage small business.
• Reduce costs by reducing regulations selectively that increase costs and limit options.
• Mention the reduction in gasoline prices made by the Trump Administration. Discuss the effects on automobile affordability of last week’s cancellation of CAFE standards that were unattainable.
• Propose a Virginia Republican proposal for dereglementation of the construction and operation of nuclear power stations to accelerate their arrival, and to reduce electricity costs. This will be a popular idea.
• Offer to remove regulatory obstacles to reduce costs and delays and to support the renovation and conversion of office buildings into residential use.
• Immigrants want a better future for their children. In many areas, urban schools are a disaster, with a high percentage of ESL students. Explain how vouchers and competition will help improve education.
• Explain to voters how regional monopolization, except for the Richmond area, of healthcare services and the integration between provider monopolies and providers drive up costs. Remind them of the Affordable Care Act market scandal in Charlottesville/Albemarle, where one insurer had that market to itself in 2018 and 2019 with Ralph Northam as Governor. The policies in that region became the most costly in the country. To lower healthcare costs in this state, offer competition-based solutions – beginning with the repeal of COPN. Join forces with your natural allies, such as the medical societies and nurses’ associations, insurance companies and brokers, to spread the message.
• Focus on violent crime in the areas where it occurs most. Republicans should review Virginia’s map of violent crime. Take note of the most affected areas, such as around Dulles Airport and along I-95, north and south from Fredericksburg and south from Richmond. The majority of voters are heavily Democratic. Send conservative messages to the most affected.

Bottom line

The Republican Party leadership in Virginia is unable to articulate conservative policy that will appeal to a greater share of voters. They haven’t discussed how their policies would improve affordability. They have ignored the recruitment efforts of legal immigrants, and their children. Lastly, they failed to fund and recruit candidates who would drive the turnout. Glenn Youngkin paid for his own campaign.

You need to either get your act together or move aside.