Dwayne “The Rock” Yancey

Trump won more than ever before in Northern Virginia, and his margins also increased in rural Virginia.

This is what I saw in the Fincastle Precinct of Botetourt County, Virginia on Tuesday. This sign caught my attention. There were other signs in the same format at other precincts.

This photo is the best explanation for Tuesday’s results. Officially, the national results are still in question but I think the direction is pretty clear: Donald Trump returns to the presidency.

Many reasons may have led to this, but certain are more important than others. The economy was consistently ranked as the top concern of voters in polls. This is not a good sign. These polls show that voters are not very fond of Trump, and this is why I find these signs so powerful. These signs give voters an excuse to vote for a candidate they may otherwise dislike. In a red area, the Kamala Harris sign was just her name. Evidently, that wasn’t good enough. Her emphasis on protecting the democracy was also not enough. It was an abstract concept compared to a very real issue, inflation.

Trump has many faults and no voter is ignorant of them, yet they still voted for him. Democrats will wonder why they voted for Trump, but I think it’s pretty clear: They were not happy with how things were going. The history suggests that they will not be happy with the direction Trump takes the nation either, but elections are binary decisions and voters did not trust Harris’ ability to make changes. Democrats will likely have to do a lot of introspection.

Harris did not win Virginia by the margin Democrats expected. She underperformed in Virginia. Some other Democrats also did. In the coming days, we’ll be able to dig deeper into this topic. For now, let’s focus on these highlights.

1. Trump has never run better than he did in Northern Virginia

Trump has never been strong in the suburbs of Northern Virginia. Democrats, on the other hand, have been able in the past to ignore large losses in rural Virginia because they were able run up the score by being able in the most populous area of the state.

This time, it didn’t happen.

Arlington County: In 2004, Biden won 80.6%, while Trump received 17.1%. Harris won this time with 72.22% to Trump’s 20.71%.

Fairfax County, Virginia: Biden won by 69.9% in 2004. Harris’s win was 65.8% to 31,5%. This is Trump’s best performance ever.

Loudoun County, Virginia: Four years ago Biden won with 61.5% votes to Trump’s 36%. This year, Harris received 56.25 percent of the vote and Trump 40.17 percent. This is his best ever showing in Loudoun.

Prince William County, Virginia: In 2004, Biden won 62.6% to Trump’s 35.6%. Harris won 57.29% of the vote to Trump’s 39.56%.

Even a small change in percentage can translate into many votes. Another way to look at it. Biden won Arlington by 83,026 votes four years ago. Harris has a 58.158-vote lead in Arlington this year, but 16,754 votes are still to be counted. Even if all the votes went in her favor, which they won’t do, Harris’ margin would be around 9,000 below Biden’s. Biden’s margin of 61,641 votes in Prince William turned into a margin of 38,514 votes this year. All of these things add up, and when you have numbers that large, they add quickly.

2. Trump squeezes even more votes from rural Virginia

JD Vance visited Radford, Virginia in August. Trump was also in Salem the Saturday before the elections. Both candidates were trying to increase the rural Virginia vote, and they succeeded.

We have seen the Republican vote share increase in previously Democratic areas of the state over the years. This has raised the question as to how high it could go. Trump has managed to increase these percentages further. Although the percentages were often small and the votes totals low, they added up. In a tight race, each vote counts.

Trump’s highest point in four years was Lee County where he received 84.1%. He increased that to 85.7% this year. The margin of his overall vote increased from 6,876 to 7,114, but the most remarkable stat is that he increased the number of votes he received in Lee County by 119.

The numbers are small compared to those in Northern Virginia but Republicans have once again pushed into a shrinking area of the state, and produced more voters.

3. Roanoke will soon learn about provisional and late mail ballots

The three-way Roanoke mayor’s race concluded Tuesday, with Republican David Bowers leading Democrat Joe Cobb by 19 votes. Independent Stephanie Moon was a respectable runner-up.

The counting is not yet complete. Roanoke has an undetermined number of provisional votes to “cure” (and count); Del. Sam Rasoul of Roanoke said that the number could reach 1,000. He said that each precinct contained dozens of ballots. Virginia also counts all mail ballots that arrive before Friday noon with a properly-stamped postmark.

Three things are certain: first, the Bowers campaign and the Cobb campaign will work to ensure that their supporters who have cast provisional votes follow up on getting their vote verified. Both campaigns will be closely monitoring the mail. There will almost certainly also be a recount.

4. The Roanoke city council will be restructured regardless of the winner of the Mayor’s race

It would have happened regardless, as there were no incumbents running to fill the three available seats. Roanoke will have elected Nick Hagen to the council for the very first time since 2000. Bowers withdrawing from the mayor’s election will result in two Republicans – a repeat of the 2000 election that saw a Republican elected as mayor (Ralph Smith), and as a council member (Bill Carder).

Hagen is entitled to claim that he won the election in order to challenge the status-quo. This should lead to some exciting times. In the last quarter century, Roanoke residents have tended to support incumbents or candidates who looked like incumbents. This time, not so much.

5. Lynchburg City Council to face more drama

The Lynchburg City Council is riven with a bitter feud between two Republican factions. The election on Tuesday will not change this. It could even increase tensions. The race that was most important was for the Ward I seat, which was previously held by MaryJane Dolan. Dolan was an independent who had a Democratic affiliation. Jacqueline Timmer, a Republican, appears to have taken the seat. She has 533 votes in front of her; provisionals and mail-in ballots that arrive late will have a hard time overturning this.

If the apparent result holds up, the Republican majority will go from 5-2 to 6-1. But, this is not the most important thing. It could mean that Lynchburg Council might decide to oust Stephanie Reed as mayor and elect someone else. Timmer has consistently refused to reveal who she will vote for as mayor. Reed, Republican Chris Faraldi, and Democrat Sterling Wilder are the only three votes remaining from the four that elected Reed as mayor two years ago. This raises the issue of who will be supported by the other Republicans, incumbents Marty Misjuns & Larry Taylor as well as newly elected Curt & Jacqueline Timmer. Reed’s only hope is to convince Taylor to back her.

No matter who becomes mayor, Misjuns, who was twice censured, and Faraldi will remain on the council. Misjuns has been trying to defeat Faraldi this year. The Lynchburg City Republican Committee will still vote on the motion to expel Reed and Faraldi from their committee. The election didn’t resolve anything.

Peter Alexander’s write-in campaign, which he had hoped would be enough to oust Faraldi and elect Democrat April Watson by stealing Republican votes, failed.

Timmer may have Ward I but she did not win a majority. She came in with 44%. We can’t tell what Ward I voters think about the current situation at Lynchburg City Council. There may be a majority of voters who oppose both Republican parties, but our first past the post system does not recognize this. This result will be a talking point for those who are pushing for ranked-choice vote.

6. The Bob Good campaign for a write-in vote was a failure.

It doesn’t seem to matter how many Republicans disgruntled wrote Good’s name on the ballot in the 5th Congressional District Race. John McGuire won the bitter primary against Good and received 57.56% votes. This is almost the exact same percentage as Good got in the midterms two years ago. Good had 57.6% at that time. McGuire also received more votes than Good. McGuire has 230,971 total votes. This is before the provisionals and mail ballots that arrived late are counted. Good received 210,988 voters in the 2004 presidential election.

In the coming days, there will be much more to say on the election results of this year. But for now, these five may be the most important.