James A. Bacon

Virginia may look red on a map, but the state is still blue where it matters, in the cities, suburbs, and rural areas. The Democrat Party’s strength in inner suburbs and urban centers outweighed the Republican Party’s strength in rural and small towns. Virginia voted for Kamala as president and Tim Kaine back to the U.S. Senate. Six of 11 congressional districts were given to Democratic Party candidates.

The top-line results of the national elections can be found almost anywhere. I will not dwell on them. I’m interested in documenting the changing balance of power between the two major parties in the state. The GOP is still playing.

We note that when comparing the results of the 2024 elections (as reported by the Virginia Public Access Project on Wednesday morning, with over 99% of precincts reporting), the following is true:

• Donald Trump did not win as many votes in Virginia as he had in 2020 — 1,949,000 as opposed to 1,963,000. Kamala Harris’ vote total fell even further compared with Biden’s — 2,302,000 as opposed to 2,412,000. The Democratic Party’s margin of victory dropped from 10% to 5%.
• The margin of victory for Democrat Tim Kaine over Republican Hung Cao was smaller than the margin of victory for Democrat Senator Mark Warner over his opponent Daniel Gade – 353,000 votes versus 532,000.
• Add up all the votes cast for Ds and Rs in the 11 house districts. Democrats received more votes, but Republican Party candidates eroded the Dem lead. Comparing 2024 to 2020 is difficult because Morgan Griffith, the 9th district congressman, faced no opposition four years ago. The vote total for Democrats was therefore 0. If the results from the 9th district are excluded, the Democrat Party’s advantage has shrunk from 542,000 to 311,000 votes. Griffith’s 179,000 vote lead made the gap smaller this year than the numbers suggest. In 2024, Dem candidates (excluding minor-party candidates) scored 51.6% and GOP candidates 48.4%.

In general, Democrats won the federal elections in 2024… but Republicans had a more competitive election than they did in 2020.

Do these results reflect a significant shift in partisan loyalty or are they just idiosyncratic due to the different qualities of the candidates’? Both interpretations are possible.

Harris clearly had less appeal with Virginians in 2020 than Biden. How he would’ve done in 2024, however, is another matter. Trump lost 24,000 votes, but Harris lost 189,000 votes compared to Biden. Was it the candidate’s fault? Was the message of the candidate to blame? Changing voter priorities? For weeks, we’ll read armchair commentary. Let the Democratic Party’s circular firing squads begin!

The shift in coalitions between the Democrat Party and the Republican Party is more fundamental than any candidate. The electorate seems to be realigning. Democrats are reconstituting as the party for educated urban/suburban elitists and “dispossessed’ minorities. Republicans, under Trump, are reorganizing as the party for those who consider themselves to be working people. They continue to gain ground among minorities and Hispanics.

It may be above my pay grade to explain how this realignment affected Virginia’s election results in 2018. I will be interested in any analysis that sheds light on the subject.