Virginia’s governor race is a key indicator for midterm elections in 2026. If we lose those, President Trump’s America First agenda is in danger. We invite Democrats to hold endless hearings and stalling.

Ned Ryun tries to stop that.

In an exclusive interview, he said: “We cannot run like 2005 if it is our intention to beat the Left. I also hope that conservatives will be as committed as we are.”

A permanent campaign is the only way to get serious

Ryun is the CEO and founder of American Majority Action which trains conservative leaders. He’s also the leading expert in the country on the “permanent campaigns”–building infrastructures to prime Republican voters years before Election Day. This requires coordinated voter registration and message microtargeting as well as a maximum early voting turnout, whether it is in person or via absentee ballot.

Ryun explained that Virginia has 45 days for early voting. If Democrats are already banking votes by mid-September then Republicans cannot wait until November 4, to begin voting. “They have to begin now, or better yet years ago.”

72% of the 722,863 Virginia voters listed on Virginia’s permanent ballot absentee list are likely Democrats. That’s 518 098 voters. Only 25% of likely Republicans are 178,765 voters.

Ned Ryun: American Majority

It’s difficult to identify each party’s most likely voters because Virginia does not register voters based on party affiliation. However, the latest estimates show that Democrats have a 300,000 vote advantage over Republicans: 2.3 millions Democrats vs. 2,07 million Republicans and 1.7million independents.

The Old Dominion, despite Democrats’ advantage is very winnable by Republicans. Kamala Harris actually lost here last year – about 78,000 votes – compared to Joe Biden’s turnout in 2020, while Trump gained overall 113,000 votes. It will be difficult, but not impossible, for Republicans to close their 260,000 vote gap by 2028 if they focus on the right priorities.

Ryun stated that the Right would struggle in Virginia unless we invest in changing these numbers. It’s important to grasp the basics of winning numbers. In many cases, the numbers on the permanent absentee and registration lists are the most important.

He added, “Right away there is work to be done if we are to make Virginia a battleground state by 2028.”

Ryun’s argument, which he has been pounding for years, is that if early voting is available, Republicans should use it, or they will lose elections. In a world that has become accustomed to early voting, it’s impossible to get enough GOP voters to show up on Election Day in order to overturn weeks of Democratic voting dominance.

John Tillman is also in agreement. “The Left runs a constant campaign.” We cannot just turn up three weeks before Election Day, or three months, or three years later. We must organize all year long, register voters, collect early votes and build trust in communities open to new ideas.

Tillman refers to young, Hispanic and black Americans, as well as working-class Americans, who are the core of Trump’s new coalition. Trump won them over “not with slick slogans but because they spoke to their real-life realities, such as rising prices, failing school, and unsafe streets.

John Tillman (Illinois Policy Institute)

He warns that if the coalition of center-right continues to fight today’s wars using tactics from yesterday, they will lose their momentum.

Both experts encourage conservatives to vote early. Ryun warned strategists in July that they should not rely on Election Day to defeat the Democrats’ political machinery. He wrote an article entitled ” The Economics of Early Voting.” The Left is well aware of this aspect, but the Right still struggles to understand it even after Trump’s resounding victory in November. He writes:

The cost of voting by mail is about $10-12 per ballot. It could be even lower depending on the number of calls, text messages, postcard reminders, or door knocks required. If you return the ballot the same day, you could pay as little as $2-3.

The cost of voting in person within a week or two of the opening of the polling locations is $20. However, it could be lower depending on the time you vote. The cost of voting in-person early is significantly lower if you vote on the first day.

Once early voting begins in September, waiting to vote in person on Election Day can cost Right up to 100 per vote – 50 times more than mailing in your ballot. Ryun explained that door knocks, phone calls, text messages, digital ads and postcards from different groups, such as campaigns, can add up. “And, a campaign or an outside group will not stop contacting until they have your vote.”

It’s important for Republicans to realize that last-minute ads in October, even if they cost millions of dollars, won’t be able to counter the early voting accumulated by Democrats. In Wisconsin’s important Supreme Court race, the GOP launched $6 million in TV ads just one week before Election Day… but lost by 10 points.

Takeaway: The way the money was spent is more important than the amountwas spend.

According to Restoration of America, likely Democrats outnumbered likely Republicans by 28%, giving the liberal candidate Susan Crawford an advantage on Election Day. Trump had cut Harris’ lead in early votes by two-thirds, compared to 2020 turnout. actually won the in-person early voting and ultimately took Wisconsin by 29,000 voters. This was due to a permanent campaign infrastructure created by American Majority Action, and other conservative groups operating across the state.

To win, Republicans did not need to defeat Democrats in early orElection Day Voting; they only needed to reduce the Democrats’ early voting advantage.

(RELATED We need a permanent campaign to win )

Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin has proven this twice in the years 2021 and 2023 with his Secure Your Vote Campaign to encourage Republicans to vote before Election Day. In 2020, Democrats won early voting by a margin of 31 points. In 2020, Democrats’ lead in early voting dropped to just 19.5 points. This was enough to allow Youngkin to win the governorship (by a narrow margin). In the 2022 midterms Republicans lost early voting by 26 percentage points, though it was still a smaller margin than in 2020. However, they clawed back to 15-points in 2023 when Youngkin’s Secure Your Vote campaign was rerun.

The Democrats did retake the General Assembly in that year. But, those razor-thin majoritys would have been much greater if Secure Your Vote had not been launched.

The closest early voting result yet was achieved by the Democrats in 2024, which is the best early voting year on record for Virginia Republicans.

This is great news for Republicans as we approach November. But only if they maintain their momentum. In Wisconsin, it’s not about beating the Democrats in early voting. It’s more about cutting their lead to allow Republicans to overcome them on Election Day. In Wisconsin, Republicans have no choice because they lack the advantage of spending.

Connecting issues that matter to voters

As of this writing, Abigail Spanberger had raised nearly $23 million compared to just $9 million by Republican Winsome Sears. Outside group spending is likely to favor Spanberger in this race as well. This is another reason to concentrate those precious resources on conservative voting turnout, instead of outdated tactics.

Note: This is “conservative” voters, not “Republican” voters. There is a difference.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court election in April highlighted the difficulty the party has reaching Trump-only supporters, a part of the nontraditional coalition that Donald has built over the last decade. They are the voters who only vote for Donald Trump and rarely for any other Republican candidates. We’ll have a hard time gaining their support until the Right identifies these people and understands what drives them.

Some 76,000 of these non-traditional conservatives may have voted for Trump in November and the liberal Crawford in April, despite polls that showed that they had a hard time with her over issues such as abortion and the state’s voter ID laws. Ryun says that these voters can’t just be treated as straight-ticket Republican supporters who follow the party line.

John Tillman urges Republicans “to treat each voter as an individual.”

Trump-only voters are “a mix of policy views with varying degrees of intensity about the issues.” He says that by engaging with voters at the individual level, campaigns are able to determine what issue will most motivate each voter to vote. Treating them as cookie-cutter pods of voters, is a losing approach.

The key is to find issues that they are passionate about, and connect them with Lt. Governor. Sears. Sears.

Sears’s basic pitch cements the legacy of Governor. Youngkin has a 51% rating of approval in a state that leans blue, and he’s accomplished a lot.

• The 2021 election promises include: abolition of the commonwealth’s tax on groceries;
• The first commercial nucleofusion plant in the world is breaking ground. It promises lower electricity costs.
• The return of nearly 1 billion dollars in tax relief HTML to taxpayers despite Democrat attempts to block any tax reduction;
• Stopping DEI in Schools and approving $290 Million for new school construction
• Arresting more than 500 illegal alien criminals, and overseeing the 38% decrease in crime in Virginia’s worst cities.
• Vowing to abolish the highest-in-the-nation car tax over Democrat opposition in the General Assembly–whereas Spanberger, in practiced politicalese, merely backs a “path” to ending it.

The Economy…

The Spanberger campaign’s path to victory is simple: avoid alienating moderates, and boost Democrat participation in strongholds like Richmond and Norfolk as well as the ultra-liberal suburbs of northern Virginia, where a quarter or the state’s residents reside.

Sears’ route is more difficult. She must fire up her traditional GOP base and connect with Trump in order to nab Trump’s only voters. She also needs to woo moderate suburban soccer moms with kitchen table policies.

James Bacon, a Virginia political expert and publisher of Bacon’s Rebellion (a popular blog of commentary), said that Sears was saying the right thing to appeal to voters from varying backgrounds. On the economy, she stresses jobs, private sector growth, and a policy that includes all of these. Her social justice themes emphasize equal opportunity but not equal results. She also stresses the importance of crime-free communities and freedom to choose schools for the poor.

Bacon said, “Whether or not her message can penetrate the fog created by her opponent’s media and opponents is another question.”

Bacon says it’s “a tall task” but “feasible”, if Sears keeps up with the winning issues. Recent polls show that Spanberger has lost her lead over Sears from 10 points to 4 points. These are early results, but polling will increase after the Democrats’ primary on June 17.

Ned Ryun, for his part urges conservatives to not get cold feet if they already have an effective battleplan. Ryun tells conservative donors: “Don’t spend your money on ads when this ballot-chasing infrastructure is starved of money.”

This is a proven piece of advice. Will the Right listen to you?

This article first appeared on Republicans won't flip Virginia red without the permanent campaign model