By the numbers: parole under Youngkin, under Spanberger, and in September

How much has parole changed since Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger replaced the Virginia Parole Board? The answer depends on who is counting and over what period, but every published count points the same direction.

The jump is stark. A Washington Examiner analysis published Oct. 7 found that Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin's parole board approved 1.23% of parole requests in all of 2025, granting 32, while Spanberger's board, installed in mid-March, posted a 13.89% release rate in roughly half of 2026, with 38 grants, which the Examiner described as more than 10 times Youngkin's rate. A separate WJLA 7News analysis of every decision since Spanberger's board first met in May counted 48 grants in 205 discretionary and geriatric parole cases, about 23.4%, or "almost one in four," compared with fewer than two in 100 under Youngkin's board. Bolts magazine, analyzing monthly decisions, put Youngkin's board at about 2% from January 2022 through September 2023 and 1.6% for 2023. The analyses cover different periods and case counts, which is why the 2026 figures differ. The board's own reports show 14 grants in 44 parole decisions in August, about 32%, and 7 grants in 85 decisions in September, about 8.2%.

WJLA 7News reported on Sept. 14 that the board had approved about 10% of requests at that point, about 10 times the rate under Youngkin's board. By Oct. 2, its count had reached 48 of 205.

Before Youngkin, under Democratic governors, rates were higher but still in single digits. The Virginia State Crime Commission reported discretionary-parole grant rates of 11% in 2018, 8% in 2019, 12% in 2020 and 8% through September 2021, under Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam. Bolts reported that about 6% of applicants were approved under Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe.

Monthly numbers swing. In August, the board granted 14 of 44 cases, about 32%, according to its report. In September, it granted 7 of 85, about 8.2%, and denied 78. Even September's lower rate is several times the 1.6% Bolts reported for 2023 and the 1.23% the Examiner reported for 2025.

Who the board releases matters as much as how many. In September, the seven grants included two men convicted of murder, one serving life, and three convicted of sexual offenses, including a man convicted in 2023 of raping a child under 13.

Parole advocates dispute the framing. Jason Pye of the Due Process Institute wrote that Youngkin's board also granted parole to people convicted of murder and rape, counting 145 grants from April 2022 through mid-January 2026, including 24 involving life sentences. That works out to roughly three grants a month over nearly four years; WJLA counted 48 grants in about five months of meetings under Spanberger's board.

Spanberger appointed all five members on March 4, and they serve at her pleasure. The Democratic-led General Assembly confirmed them. Chair Shannon Dion was a Northam appointee to lead the Department of Criminal Justice Services.

Voters who want a different direction have one lever: the governor who picks the board. Spanberger's office had not responded to WJLA's requests for comment as of the station's Sept. 14 and Oct. 2 reports.

The September denials show the board still says no most of the time; 74 of the 78 denials cited a need for cognitive behavioral therapy completion and insight. But the trend in grants is what the numbers show.

Why the board matters: Virginia abolished parole for most crimes in 1995, under a truth-in-sentencing law pushed by Republican Gov. George Allen's administration, according to Bolts. The people still eligible are mostly those convicted of serious crimes before then, older prisoners seeking geriatric release, and people covered by 2020 expansions for juvenile offenders and some 1995-2000 jury cases, which Democrats passed after taking full control of state government in 2019, Bolts reported. That leaves the decision in the hands of five people the governor appoints. Statewide, violent crime fell to 210.5 per 100,000 residents in 2025, down 7% from 2024, according to the Department of Criminal Justice Services.