By the numbers: parole under Democrats, under Youngkin, and under Spanberger

Who sits on Virginia's parole board, and who appoints them, has a measurable effect on who goes free. Here are the numbers.

Under Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam, the board's discretionary parole grant rate was 11% in 2018, 8% in 2019, 12% in 2020 and 8% in 2021 through September, according to the Virginia State Crime Commission.

The jump is stark. A Washington Examiner analysis published Oct. 7 found that Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin's parole board approved 1.23% of parole requests in all of 2025, granting 32, while Spanberger's board, installed in mid-March, posted a 13.89% release rate in roughly half of 2026, with 38 grants, which the Examiner described as more than 10 times Youngkin's rate. A separate WJLA 7News analysis of every decision since Spanberger's board first met in May counted 48 grants in 205 discretionary and geriatric parole cases, about 23.4%, or "almost one in four," compared with fewer than two in 100 under Youngkin's board. Bolts magazine, analyzing monthly decisions, put Youngkin's board at about 2% from January 2022 through September 2023 and 1.6% for 2023. The analyses cover different periods and case counts, which is why the 2026 figures differ; the August report alone shows 14 grants in 44 parole decisions, about 32%.

Northam's tenure also produced a scandal. In 2020, the Office of the State Inspector General found that the board violated state law and its own procedures in granting parole to Vincent Martin, who killed Richmond police officer Michael Connors, including by failing to properly notify the Richmond prosecutor and the victim's family, according to the Associated Press.

Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin replaced that board after taking office in 2022. The grant rate fell to about 2% from January 2022 through September 2023 and to about 1.6% in 2023, according to Bolts magazine. A Washington Examiner analysis put the 2025 rate at 1.23%, with 32 grants for the year.

Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger appointed an entirely new board on March 4, 2026, and the Democratic-led General Assembly confirmed it. WJLA reported in September that the board had approved about 10% of requests, roughly 10 times the rate under Youngkin's board. By Oct. 2, WJLA counted 48 grants among 205 discretionary and geriatric cases since the board's first meeting in May. The Washington Examiner reported a 13.89% release rate and 38 grants in the board's first six months, more than Youngkin's board granted in all of 2025.

The August 2026 decisions report, the latest available, shows 14 grants among 44 parole cases decided, about 32%. Monthly figures swing with the docket, so a single month is not directly comparable with a full year, but every measure points the same way.

Who was released matters as much as how many. August's 14 included four people convicted in killings, eight convicted of sexual offenses and five serving life, according to the board's report.

Former Attorney General Jason Miyares, a Republican, put it bluntly to WJLA: "She knew the day that she fired Youngkin's parole board and replaced them with five social justice warriors. She knew this is exactly the result." He argued that Spanberger can replace all five members.

That is accurate as to her power: members serve at the pleasure of the governor, according to the board and to the resolution confirming them. It is also true that the record does not show the governor directing any individual decision. Each vote belongs to the members who cast it.

Defenders of the board say Youngkin's near-zero rate was itself an outlier, and that the board is giving long-serving, low-risk prisoners the review the law promises. The board's records do show lengthy time served, clean disciplinary records and, in some cases, prosecutors' support.

But Virginians can see the trend line for themselves. Democratic boards granted more paroles, a Republican board granted almost none, and Spanberger's board is granting more than any in recent memory. WJLA reported that it asked Spanberger's office whether she approves; it had not received an answer.

The victims' side of the ledger also matters. In August alone, victims or family members opposed release in at least four cases the board granted, according to its minutes: Fields, Taylor, Holland and, in part, Logsdon.

Denials still outnumbered grants in August, 30 to 14, and the board's most common reason for denial, cited in 29 of the 30, was that cognitive behavioral therapy completion and insight were needed before risk could be considered reduced.

Voters who want a different direction can tell their legislators and the governor. The board meets regularly in Richmond, and its monthly decisions are posted on its website.

Richmond is an independent city in the Richmond region.