By James Jarvis – Published November 6, 2024 at 2:30PM

Fairfax County Democrats face a more competitive Virginia in 2024, after Donald Trump’s win in the presidential election. The increased Republican mobilization in Virginia has raised concerns about the Democrats’ hold on power.

Although Vice President Kamala Harris’ margin of victory in Virginia was greater than 5 percentage point it was lower than that of President Joe Biden, who won Virginia by more than 10 points. Harris won 65.44% in Fairfax County compared to Biden’s score of 69.85%.

Dominic Thompson, executive Director of the Fairfax County Democratic Committee expressed pride at the countywide voter turnout, which was 68.35%, but noted that Republicans appeared “more mobilized local” than in 2020. This contributed to their better showing.

He told FFXnow that “Democratic committees in the Commonwealth must always ask, ‘How can they also keep up and outperform?”

Thompson said that overconfidence on the local, national, and state levels played an important role in Democrats’ performances. He noted that many Democrats assumed Virginia’s blue trend would continue and shifted their focus to other battleground States.

“I think that we were all looking around and saying, ‘Hey North Carolina, you need our help in order to go blue.’ Thompson stated that Pennsylvania needed our help to become blue. We were so focused on other things that we forgot we’re a blue-state now. But we still have to work for it.”

Reactions of local and state officials to the election results

With a few notable exceptions, Democratic officials on the local, federal, and state levels were remarkably silent after Trump was declared the winner of the 2016 presidential election.

Walter Alcorn, Hunter Mill District Supervisor, told FFXnow he was disappointed by the results.

He said, “I am worried about the future of our region under a Trump administration. I believe it is important that we stick together in times like these.”

Fairfax City Democrats released a statement this morning to congratulate the winners of local elections, including Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly who won his reelection by more than 33 percentage points.

The group stated in a release that “While the news regarding the presidential race was disappointing, the City Dems remained committed to fighting to protect the values we cherish the most: equity and environmental stewardship; smart growth; a safe, welcoming city for everyone, housing access, commitment to celebrating diversity, fighting to support working families, and more.”

Gov. Glenn Youngkin released a press release this morning, congratulating Democrats, Republicans, and President-elect Trump, as well JD Vance and Vice-President-elect JD, on their victories. He stressed that the election had been “fair and secure.”

Youngkin stated in a news release that “In Virginia, We took Concrete Steps to Protect Our Election Process and Virginians Know That They Can Have Faith in Our Results Because Of Paper Ballots, Counting Machines Not Connected to the Internet, Strong Chain of Custody Requirements, Secure Drop Boxes, And Most Importantly — The Cleanest Voter Rolls in America.”

Youngkin’s government was hit by lawsuits for an executive order which led to about 1,600 Virginia voters being removed from the rolls after they had been flagged as non-citizens. The Justice Department and Civil Rights groups claimed that this removal violated a Federal law banning voter purges 90 days before an election.

Susan Beals , Virginia’s Elections Commissioner, said yesterday that there were no more voters dropped after October 15.

The Fairfax County Republican Committee didn’t respond to FFXnow’s request for comments on the results of the election. However, they published a Statement on Twitter congratulating Trump.

The post stated that “all our fears have now been laid to rest.” “Our hardwork has paid off.” “The weak, radical and decrepit leadership by Joe Biden Nancy Pelosi Chuck Schumer has ended.”

What went wrong with a local exit poll

The results of the election surprised not only local party officials.

A early election exit poll conducted at GMU Schar School of Policy and Government by students showed that Harris performed better than Biden in certain Fairfax suburb districts in 2020.

After initially predicting Harris would win Virginia by more than 12 percentage points, Jeremy Mayer (associate professor at Schar School) acknowledged that the poll conducted by his team had significantly underestimated her support in Fairfax, and throughout Virginia.

He said that this was due to the high rate of refusal among Republican voters (estimated at 35-40%), and noted that many Trump supporters who distrust media outlets and academic institutions often declined to take part.

Many Republicans view universities as hostile and this is partly true. He told FFXnow that there are many liberals in college and they don’t respect anti-intellectual Republicans. There’s a great deal of respect for the traditional Republicans who speak in full sentences. But for those who reject knowledge, it’s hard for teachers to be fair. There is some reason for Republican hostility towards universities.

Mayer pointed out that Trump’s performance mirrored the national trend, showing an improvement in voter groups and regions where he had previously struggled.

He said that the better comparison was to 2020 as the exit polls showed a notable increase for Democrats in the three Fairfax precincts – Cardinal Forest Elementary School, Springfield, Centerpointe, the Herrity Building, and Little Run Elementary School – highlighting an increased polarization.

Mayer also noted that Trump did better in Richmond’s suburbs than Fairfax County. This highlights the special relationship between D.C. suburbs, and the federal government.

He said: “I think DMV is in a bubble. That bubble is so dependent on federal expenditures and Trump’s plans to hire federal employees… are bad for places within the beltway. I think this is probably what we measured and part of the antipathy towards Trump.”

A look ahead to 2025

Virginia Democrats have already begun preparing for a high-stakes race in 2025.

Thompson, who is vying for the governorship of California and control over the state legislature, says that the party will be focusing on building a strategy resilient to changing political dynamics and learning from the results this year.

Thompson said that Democrats would work to refine their messaging, strengthen their ground game and prioritize important issues such as inflation and tax reform in the months to come. Abigail Spanberger, the soon-to be former Rep. is considered a potential candidate to reclaim governor’s office in 2025.

Thompson stated, “I believe Abigail Spanberger to be one of the most qualified candidates we have in Virginia.” “I mean, message-discipline wise, she’s great. She has an impressive background, and has won tight races in the past. Unfortunately, we found out that 2021’s gubernatorial election was a close race.

Mayer pointed out Virginia’s tendency of electing governors who are the opposite party to the current administration. This pattern could favor Democrats by 2025 depending on Trump’s performance in office and the impact it has on Virginia voters.

Mayer stated that if Trump’s first six or seven months showed real success abroad and success with the economy, and there were no major scandals, then I would rather be a Republican than a Democrat in Virginia. “But if Trump is elected and… if he is the Trump who has a lot of turmoil in his White House, and is really undisciplined then I would rather be a Democrat,” Mayer said.

Thompson emphasized that in order for Democrats to continue their winning streak in Fairfax County they must look deeply inwards to understand the reasons behind Trump’s growing support.

He said, “I believe there should be a lot of reflection about why we have lost twice to Trump.” “Two of three isn’t a good rating.”